Analysis
October 2026 Visa Bulletin Prediction: EB-1 India Back to April 1, 2023
Our single best-case estimate for EB-1 India when FY2027 opens on October 1, why April 1, 2023 is the date to watch, and what it means for EB-2 and EB-3 India. A prediction, not an official date.
Update, September 29, 2026: The official October 2026 Visa Bulletin is out. EB-1 India's Final Action Date moved to February 1, 2023, not the April 1, 2023 best case we predicted. EB-2 India returned at November 1, 2013, in line with Charlie Oppenheim's more cautious expectation. Read our full analysis: October 2026 Visa Bulletin: what changed.
The October Visa Bulletin is the most important one of the year for many Indian applicants. It opens a new fiscal year, and with it a new supply of employment-based visa numbers.
As of September 24, 2026, the Department of State still lists the next bulletin as "Coming Soon." Until it is published, everything below is our forecast, not an official date.
Our single best case: EB-1 India at April 1, 2023
If we had to pick one number, it would be an EB-1 India Final Action Date of April 1, 2023 in the October 2026 bulletin, up from October 15, 2022 today.
| Category (India) | September 2026 Final Action Date | October 2026 best case (our estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | 15 Oct 2022 | 01 Apr 2023 |
| EB-2 | Unavailable | 15 Jul 2014 or later |
| EB-3 | 01 Jan 2014 | About 01 Feb 2014 |
Estimates only. The Department of State sets the dates, and it can choose more conservative cutoffs than these.
What Charlie Oppenheim expects
Charlie Oppenheim ran the State Department's Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division from 1998 to 2021, the office that sets the Visa Bulletin dates. He is now Director of Visa Consulting at WR Immigration, and he shared his October 2026 expectations in the firm's latest Chatting with Charlie webinar.
For India, his outlook lines up closely with ours on EB-1 and is more cautious on EB-2:
| India category | Our best case | Charlie Oppenheim's expectation |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | 01 Apr 2023 | Early 2023 |
| EB-2 | 15 Jul 2014 or later | Mid-to-late 2013 |
| EB-3 | About 01 Feb 2014 | Holds or advances slowly |
Beyond India, he expects EB-1 to stay current for most countries, EB-2 for most countries to sit around January 2026, and EB-3 for most countries to be difficult to predict.
The EB-2 India gap is the one to watch. The July 2026 bulletin pointed to at least July 15, 2014, while Oppenheim expects a later-2013 date. If he is right, the State Department would be opening FY2027 more conservatively than its own summer projection suggested.
How the October dates get set
Oppenheim's webinar walked through the inputs the State Department weighs before publishing the October bulletin. In short:
- Allocation targets. The Department decides how many visa numbers each category should use in October, then sets a slightly higher target to allow for refusals and interview no-shows.
- Documentarily complete demand. It counts applicants that the National Visa Center and USCIS report as ready for a visa number, and compares that demand with the target.
- Carry-over cases. Consular interviews cancelled in September, and cases that were scheduled earlier but did not use a number, can land in October.
- Pending adjustment cases. USCIS requests a visa number only when a case is fully processed. If the priority date is not within the Final Action Date, the request goes into a pending-demand file that helps the Department set future dates.
He also explained "fall-down": numbers one category does not use can flow to the next category, which is why demand in one category can move dates in another.
Why April 1, 2023 is the date to watch
EB-1 India has already been at April 1, 2023 this year. It reached that date in the April 2026 bulletin and held it in May. Then the pressure of FY2026 demand forced it backward:
- May 2026: April 1, 2023
- June 2026: December 15, 2022
- July to September 2026: October 15, 2022
The September bulletin explained why. It warned that high demand from India "may necessitate making the category unavailable in the coming weeks if India's pro-rated limit in the EB-1 category is reached before the fiscal year ends." The retrogression was about running out of this year's numbers, not about a new view of long-term demand.
On October 1, FY2027 begins and the annual limits reset. That makes a return toward the spring 2026 position the most natural first move. We think a jump beyond April 2023 in October is less likely. December 1, 2023 is today's EB-1 India Dates for Filing cutoff, not its Final Action Date, and the Department of State usually opens a new year with some caution.
What it could mean for EB-2 and EB-3 India
EB-2 India is currently unavailable because India used its FY2026 allocation. In the July 2026 bulletin, the Department of State projected that in October the Final Action Date would likely advance to at least the date published in May 2026, which was July 15, 2014. That projection depends on demand and on the FY2027 annual limit. National Interest Waiver cases follow the same EB-2 India cutoff.
EB-3 India has moved slowly and stood at January 1, 2014 in September. A small step forward, to around February 2014, is our base case.
How to read this before you act
- Wait for the official bulletin. Predictions, including ours, can be wrong. The Department of State can hold dates or open them more conservatively if pending demand is high.
- Check which chart USCIS will use. Each month USCIS decides whether adjustment-of-status applicants use the Final Action Dates chart or the Dates for Filing chart. A date that looks current on one chart may not be usable.
- Get your documents ready now. If your priority date is close to a likely cutoff, prepare your adjustment of status package in advance, so you can file quickly if the window opens.
Use the wait to strengthen your case
Priority dates move on their own schedule. Your evidence does not have to wait. If you are preparing an EB-1A or EB-2 NIW petition, you can check which criteria your documents support, see what is still missing, and build your case in Case Studio before you spend on legal counsel. For the NIW framework, our EB-2 NIW assessment walks through the three Dhanasar prongs.
We will update this post when the October 2026 bulletin is published.
Sources
- WR Immigration: Chatting with Charlie webinar series
- WR Immigration: Charlie Oppenheim biography
- Department of State: Visa Bulletin index
- BAL: September 2026 Visa Bulletin
- Fragomen: June 2026 Visa Bulletin
- Morgan Lewis: May 2026 Visa Bulletin
- July 2026 Visa Bulletin
- USCIS: Adjustment of status filing charts
This is an independent forecast for general information, not legal advice or an official Department of State date. Meritocrat does not determine visa availability or replace legal counsel. Recheck official publications before filing or making travel or employment decisions.
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